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The Imam and the Pastor: Cooperating for Peace Interview with Imam Muhammad Ashafa and Pastor James Wuye

Can Nations Be Friends? By Joseph V. Montville

When Rivers Run Dry By Fred Pearce

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On the Move

Migration is becoming a high-profile issue of our time. World demographic, economic, political and social trends guarantee that governments and societies will need to put more and more emphasis on migration management in all its variety. There is a growing recognition that migration is an essential, inevitable and potentially beneficial component of the economic and social life of every state and every region. The impact of international labor flows will be felt in almost every sector--the economy, education, health, environment, law enforcement, development and international relations. Organizing, regularizing and managing the international labor market will be a very significant migration challenge for governments and societies in the coming decades.

International Organization for Migration's World Migration Report 2003 estimates the number of international migrants at 175 million. This means one in every 35 people is a migrant. The number of people on the move will continue to increase. Patterns of movement, already complex and multidirectional, will continue to alter as circumstances change at the global, national, regional, community and personal levels. People will seek to move to where there are better prospects for work and quality of life.

In terms of labor migration there are three key determining factors which will continue to fuel this movement--the "pull" of changing demographics and labor market needs in industrialized countries, the "push" of population, unemployment and crises in less developed countries, as well as intercountry networks based on family, culture and history. An alarmingly large proportion of labor migration occurs illegally, with a clandestine industry with criminal elements ready to abet it.

What must be avoided is having two types of immigration: one that is managed by governments and another parallel irregular inflow that feeds on policy inconsistencies (e.g., between migration and employment) and is facilitated by smuggling networks taking advantage of loopholes in the governmental approach. One of the biggest challenges for governments in this area is to establish credibility, best achieved by providing legitimate channels of entry while deterring irregular movement.

Integration and Identity

Questions about belonging, dual/multiple nationality, circular migration and the extent of political participation for migrants in their countries of origin or residence will increase. Integration will come into sharper focus as an issue needing attention at both policy and community levels to promote harmony and avoid exclusion and marginalization.

There will be a certain degree of constructive friction between the need for border controls and for facilitation of movement for trade, business, tourism, education and other purposes. Security will be a continuing preoccupation, and there will be ongoing need for work on identification and verification.

The relationship between health and mobility will increasingly be recognized as being key to public health in general. Mobility affects not only the health of the people on the move but also the health of communities in which they stay, whether for long or short periods, and the home communities to which they return. The role of health issues in successful integration will also become better recognized.

Developing countries will need to pay more attention to managing the economic and social impact of migration as they benefit from migrant remittances and networks built by their diaspora, but also as they seek to resolve the skills gaps left by departing professionals.

Migration and Development

Much focus in the past has been on the negative impacts of migration on development, and of development on migration. Specifically, many argued that underdevelopment was a cause of migration, and that migration caused underdeveloped countries to lose their highly skilled nationals in particular and labor force in general. While there is, arguably, a measure of truth in these assertions, properly managed international migration has enormous potential for the development of countries. It can contribute to the reduction of poverty at the local and national levels, improve sustainable human development, and reduce the economic vulnerability of developing countries.

The link between migration and development has been recognized and used positively in some regions for many years. There is greater recognition now of the positive potential, not least because the figures are compelling. Remittances have become a key source of global finance. According to World Bank figures, remittances through official channels to developing countries reached a level of 72.3 billion US dollars in 2001. It is believed that the real value, when including remittances sent through informal channels, is two or three times that amount. In most developing countries and on average, remittances are larger than Official Development Assistance (ODA) and are proving to be more stable than both ODA and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Remittances increase household income as well as boosting local and national economic growth in developing countries.

More and more countries are seeking to create and maintain connections with migrants in the diaspora and their networks, to tap into their potential to contribute human and financial capital to the development of their home communities as well as to national economic and social development. It is not just through permanent or physical return and financial contributions that home countries can benefit from migrants in the diaspora; education, consultancy advice, training and skills enhancement can be handled through virtual means or short-term return visits. A supportive environment for the receipt and investment of remittances in the home country can make a substantial difference both to the amount of remittances sent and the uses to which they are put.

Labor Needs

In future, competition for highly skilled labor will intensify. Demand for labor at all skills levels will also increase. States, businesses and migrants will need effective mechanisms to match labor needs with supply, and efficient support services to facilitate labor migration and ensure swift and effective integration. There will be a need for targeted and comprehensive labor migration programs jointly developed by countries of origin and destination which can contribute to individual livelihood building and local and national poverty reduction, prevent the "brain drain" and depletion of the labor force of source countries and enable destination countries to satisfy their labor needs and ensure the effective protection of the rights of migrants.

Migration will continue to provide challenges to governments and societies in the years to come, and those challenges will be constantly evolving. But we all have an opportunity now to start developing the frameworks and mechanisms to help shape a visionary and humane future of migration management for the benefit of all.

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